Electronic Arts, behemoth of the video game industry, was
supposed to finish its bid to take over
video game publisher and developer Take-Two Interactive ages ago (back in
February, to be precise).
Instead, the $2 billion deal was drawn out, with the deal
“expiring”
and then renewed multiple times. On August 25, 2008, the two companies finally entered a
confidentiality agreement, according to an SEC
filing.
The non-disclosure agreement doesn’t mean that the two companies will reach a
deal, though. Instead, it simply means they’ve taken a small step towards some
sort of closure.
Still, a step is a step, right? Will EA and Take-Two finally
reach an agreement? After talking to both Lan Haiwen, CEO of China-based Ultizen Games (which I covered
here)
and Brian Shiau, founder of the simExchange, they offered
their thoughts on the deal and the possible effects it might have on the
industry.
Back in February, EA, with all the cockiness of an industry
giant, offered Take-Two a deal that EA probably assumed they couldn’t refuse.
And they had reason to be cocky. EA is responsible for blockbuster series,
especially when it comes to their popular money-milking sports titles, and more
recently for most of the games released over summer.
However, Take-Two has the controversial but popular “Grand
Theft Auto Series,” developed by their subsidiary Rockstar Games. Another
subsidiary includes 2K Sports, which is the biggest competition for EA’s sports
titles (more on this later, though).
Shiau believes the deal was drawn out partly because of the
timing of the initial offer. For one thing, “Grand Theft Auto IV,” widely
anticipated as one of the biggest games of the year, was set to release at the
end of April.
“Take-Two had said they were hoping for GTA
sales data to warrant a higher valuation for the stock,” says Shiau.
Haiwen offers another possible explanation: “[Take-Two] may
have been a little scared – it’s a big merge.”
Now, though, the confidential talks will allow Take-Two to
convince EA that the company is of greater value, and the two can try to work
something out. While anything decided on is hush-hush for now, signs seem to
point towards a deal.
“EA’s offer is good,” says Haiwen, “and Take-Two will
probably learn from Microsoft and Yahoo.”
Take-Two’s stocks confirm this sentiment. “Take-Two
continues to trade well above its price prior to the deal announcement,” Shiau
affirms. “It appears investors continue to believe that a deal will eventually
occur.”
Shiau goes on to say the stock prices also “imply the market
is predicting some value being created by the merger.”
This value could also be a drawback, especially regarding
sports games. “There is certainly some question regarding the effect of the
elimination of Take-Two’s sports games, which have largely been the only
competition for EA Sports,” says Shiau, adding that it largely depends on “how
much EA’s management will meddle with Take-Two’s studios if and once a merger
takes place.”
Beyond the “Grand Theft Auto” series, which would still be a
valuable asset, sports are probably the biggest point of interest for the
company. EA already operates a virtual monopoly when it comes to sports, and
taking over its main competitor will only further solidify EA’s status as the
provider of sports games.
Haiwen, though, sees a slightly different story when it
comes to Asia. “EA and Take-Two have less impact in East
Asia,” says Haiwen. “Not too many people in China
talk about the deal.”
As such, the possible monopoly EA will hold over video game sports
is not as much of a concern in China,
though that’s not to say there won’t be any effect. Haiwen remains confident
that the combined assets of Take-Two and EA would allow for more penetration
into the Asian market, particularly in PC gaming.
“I see the market share of PC gaming growing a lot more in the next
3 years, especially in China,”
states Haiwen.
PC gaming may seem like an endangered species in North
America, but it’s most definitely thriving in Asia, and this growth may become
even more apparent should the powerhouse EA grow even larger with an
acquisition.
Of course, EA has been singled out by gamers as a heartless
company-eating giant that simply churns out rehashed titles and licensed fare.
More recently, though, EA has been breaking down that image with original
titles in its lineup and a focus on appealing to the core gamer. It remains to
be seen, then, if EA can fully shake off its lackluster reputation within the
gaming community should the deal with Take-Two actually go through.