The U.S. could become a net exporter of gasoline by 2010 as the world undergoes significant changes in demand and supply of conventional and alternative transportation fuels, according to a report released Tuesday by Booz & Company, a management consulting firm.

The U.S. biofuels mandate is partly to blame. The U.S. government has required an additional production of 600,000 to 700,000 barrels per day of biofuels, like ethanol, by 2012. That’s more than the expected domestic demand growth from gasoline during the same period. Also, Booz found that U.S. oil refineries likely will increase their capacity in the next four years, intensifying the disequilibrium.    

All together, the U.S. could end up with an excess of 100,000 to 300,000 barrels of gasoline per day.

That means American Big Oil may have to start looking abroad for markets. Booz says they will find it in the “BRIC nations:” Brazil, Russia, India and China. But if additional costs, such as transporting all that refined fuel across oceans, squeezes Big Oil’s margins too much, they may instead chose to reduce production.

If that happens, expect Exxon Mobile et al to intensify their lobbying against policies in support of biofuels. They already overheat at the thought of a competitor fuel receiving subsidies commensurate with the handouts they’ve benefited from for years. And that's during an era of unprecedented profits. Imagine Big Oil angst if they’re forced to watch their refineries lay quiet.

Two other points should be of interest to anyone following clean technology. Booz also found that plug-in hybrids shouldn’t be commercially available until 2010, and fuel cell vehicles not until 2020.

But the consulting firm said battery technology was accelerating at such an impressive pace and prices falling as a result, that these trends “may ultimately mark the end of the hydrocarbon era as we know it”.