Mobile phone voice services are suffering from their own success.
The U.S. subscriber growth rate is on track to fall to as low as 2 percent by 2012 from its current rate of 9 percent, according to a report on Friday from research firm Analysys.
The problem is simple: The mobile market hit a penetration rate of 85 percent in 2007. The subscriber growth rate for AT&T, Verizon Wireless, and T-Mobile was between 11 percent and 14 percent in 2007.
The report underscores a need for carriers to push services for Internet-connected mobile devices other than on cell phones. But so far non-voice applications such as the mobile Internet have not been as popular among subscribers as carriers hoped.
"Carriers make about $50 per month on the average subscriber and most of that is voice, and their fear of losing that is what has slowed down the growth of the mobile Internet," said Jason Kowal, head of research for Analysys.
An ABI Research report on Friday also suggests carriers should look past cell phone service to faster growth in the mobile Internet market. ABI’s report sees the emergence of a new class of mobile Internet device aimed at a wide variety of consumers.
"The wireless carriers are entering the next evolutionary phase," said Mike Manzo, chief marketing officer at Openet, a Dublin, Ireland, company that provides data mining services to carriers. "Cell phone penetration now exceeds the population by a factor of 40 percent in some places. The types of devices will change."
Mr. Manzo forecasts growth and integration of specialized mobile devices such as GPS systems, Internet-connected personal entertainment toys, and specialized business-oriented devices.