In a year in which magazine covers from Wired to our own have trumpeted the music format MP3, you might be surprised to discover that vinyl is still alive and well. Declared dead as a format ten years ago, when the record industry embraced the CD as its ticket out of slumping sales, LPs and 45s are not only still being made, but are making something of a comeback. Figures from the Recording Industry Association of America show that LP sales have actually risen, more than tripling to $34 million in 1998 from $10.6 million in 1993. And these figures don't include the brisk business in secondhand vinyl-collectors buy and sell rare used records on Ebay, Skylab Commerce, RecordCollecting.com, and other auction Web sites.

The continuing demand for vinyl illustrates how difficult it is to predict something as mercurial as pop culture taste. Many consumers of underground music are indeed downloading MP3s -- but mainly to learn about new artists, so they can go buy their records on vinyl. Ari Sass, principal at Insound.com, a site that sells independent music, emphasizes that most people are music fans, not technology fans. "These online companies are really tech" companies, not music companies," he says. "You need to go after the music that people want."

Vinyl remains the medium of choice for serious music collectors and groundbreaking artists alike. Collectors prefer vinyl's warmer sound quality and ability to hold its value better than CDs. And most DJs won't spin anything else. Vinyl is the preferred format of the music underground, particularly in hip-hop, electronica, and independent rock.

So, despite the fact that major labels no longer issue vinyl versions of pop juggernauts like Britney Spears, the format continues to be important. The music underground is where bands develop the stylistic innovations and new genres that will dominate the industry in coming years. Knowing where the technology is going is useless without understanding these cultural undercurrents. Many Internet startups, by placing technology before content, are forgetting that it is music that drives this industry. If the CD couldn't kill vinyl, then MP3 surely won't.