There’s more stormy weather ahead.
That’s the message from venture capitalists surveyed by the National Venture Capital Association.
The third annual Predictions Survey released Wednesday forecasts a pullback in investing as companies pour resources to stabilize their current portfolio companies and an ongoing inability to cash out via initial public offerings.
“Darwinian change” is the phrase NVCA President Mark Heesen applied to the 2009 climate as the recession and closed IPO market buffet VCs and their companies.
The survey of more than 400 VCs, conducted from November 24 to December 12, found that 92 percent forecast decreased investment in dollar terms for 2009 versus 2008, though 53 percent expect to invest in the same number of companies as in 2008, pointing to smaller financing rounds.
As VCs go on defense, so too will their backers. Ninety-six percent of respondents forecast that more venture firms will be unable to raise money in 2009 and 85 percent predict institutional investors will trim allocations to venture capital.
“To paraphrase Dickens, it’s the worst of times and the best of times for venture capital,” Venky Ganesan, general partner at Globespan Capital said in a statement. “On one hand, the burst of the credit bubble and the resulting recession from it is going to be long and tough. On the other hand, this could be the inflection point for venture capital where marginal venture backed companies and venture firms give way to the strong ones.”
U.S. VCs will curtail investment in international markets as well in 2009, according to the survey. More than half of those polled said investment would be curtailed in 2009 in China, India and Israel, while almost three-quarters expect a reduction in Europe.
Almost three-quarters of VCs expect the IPO market to remain closed until 2010 or beyond, while 18 percent see hope for such exits by the fourth quarter of 2009.
More than nine of 10 respondents also forecast that venture returns will fall in 2009 and more than eight in 10 that returns will sink over five to 10 years.