If Google is successful in its push for open cell phone networks, U.S. mobile virtual network operators could fall on hard times, an analyst said Monday,

Companies such as Virgin Mobile and Helio, so-called MVNOs that attach their brands and resell mobile phone services owned by major carriers, have so far struggled to turn a profit in the United States. 

And with open U.S. cell phone networks gaining ground, largely because of Google, that business is about to get tougher. The analyst said the current mobile resellers could be replaced by a new, hardier breed.

"When Google and others establish open networks, the focus will be on mass-market, inexpensive cell phones, and companies such as Helio and Apple, with its iPhone, that focus on high-end phones will be under pressure," Besen Group President Alex Besen said.

The U.S. auction of 700 MHz spectrum scheduled for January 24, 2008, will introduce a new era in mobile communications, Mr. Besen said, since key auction participants, including Google, plan to build open networks if their bids are successful.

Google has put pressure on carriers to open their networks or at least lower barriers for independent developers and device makers. The search leader has succeeded to some extent: Verizon Wireless, T-Mobile, and AT&T have all announced plans to open their networks in some fashion.

"The mobile world will evolve into three groups--carriers that provide the pipes, application providers, and device providers," said Moe Tanabian, a partner with IBB Consulting. "The MVNO business will become less centered on voice and become more sophisticated about non-voice apps."

Mr. Tanabian believes that the current crop of MVNOs will survive the expected changes in the wireless industry. He said that the changes will not happen overnight and that mobile resellers will have a chance to adapt to survive.

Both Mr.Tanabian and Mr. Besen agree that there will be a lot of new entrants.

The "next-generation" MVNOs could focus on communities of users such as ethnic groups in the U.S., offering phones that can be used both in the U.S. and in their countries of origin, Mr. Besen said.

And you will also see the emergence of MVNOs that don't depend entirely on subscription fees. Instead there will be more focus on ad revenues.