Microsoft’s next-generation operating system Windows Vista is on track for a European launch of January 2007, the company said Thursday.

The statement comes as a white paper released by research firm IDC estimated the economic potentials Vista could have on the European Union community if Vista were released on time.

In a study commissioned by the Redmond technology giant, IDC said the release of Vista will generate $40 billion in economic activity and create 100,000 jobs in six major European countries by next year.

“We feel on track to deliver a quality-driven final Windows Vista product,” said a Microsoft spokesperson. “Many partners are already testing core products based on Windows Vista, ensuring the availability of a wide range of solutions for businesses and consumers in conjunction with the Windows Vista launch.”

Shares of Microsoft rose $0.32 to $26.30 in recent trading.

Vista Delay Concerns

The study and statement come just one week after Microsoft stated delays for a European launch of Vista could take place due to European Commission concerns over some of the embedded features in Vista. Some analysts believe the figures IDC cited for the Vista launch were exaggerated.

“One has to be somewhat skeptical about the numbers quoted, given Microsoft has funded the paper,” said an analyst who asked not to be named. “The figures seem awfully high in terms of benefits just from an operating system launch. I would certainly question their numbers.”

IDC Research Director Marcel Warmerdam insists the parameters used in the study were as conservative as possible.

The study centered on Vista’s impact on Denmark, France, Germany, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom for the next year. IDC predicts 105 million units of Vista will ship in 2007, driving €2.4 billion ($3 billion) in revenue for Microsoft, if Vista launches on time.

IDC also predicts that 100,000 new jobs in training IT professionals on how to install, integrate, and build applications and services on Vista will be created. Twenty percent of total IT employment will be Vista-related in the first 12 months after it ships.

However, if Vista does not ship on time, Mr. Warmerdam said the number of IT jobs created will be cut in half, to 50,000.

While Microsoft is warning the European Commission that its antitrust actions against the company could cause a further delay in Vista’s release, research firm Gartner had predicted back in May that Microsoft would delay the release of Vista by three to four months (see Vista’s Outlook Gets Cloudier).

Microsoft has already delayed Vista’s launch date earlier this year, moving it from March to November for large companies and January for consumers and small businesses (see Microsoft Delays Vista, Again).

Gartner said the operating system was too complex to meet Microsoft’s newly targeted goal of November for large companies.

Antitrust Battle Brews

An antitrust battle has been brewing between Microsoft and the European Commission since March 2004 (see Microsoft Tussles with EU).

Earlier this week Microsoft asked the commission not to target security features embedded in Vista as the commission had done with the embedded Windows Media Player years before (see Microsoft May Delay Vista in EU).

However, on Tuesday, the commission warned Microsoft that the embedded security features could violate EU antitrust laws (see Microsoft Spars with EU on Security).

Microsoft said it wants “clarity” from the commission to ensure a “legal” version of Vista will ship in Europe.

“Microsoft wants to launch a legal version of Windows Vista in Europe,” said a Microsoft spokesperson. “Clarity from the commission will relieve the uncertainty surrounding the regulatory approach to Vista that is causing great concern to the many thousands of companies across Europe who are designing products, building solutions, and making investment decisions around the Windows Vista platform.”

Analysts do expect delays for Vista for one reason or another.

“I would not be surprised at all to see a slip of a further couple of months,” said Chris Hickey, an analyst with the London-based research firm Atlantic Equities. “Microsoft and meeting deadlines just don’t go together.”

Contact the writer:Editorial@RedHerring.com

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