avatar
General news, Finance

IPO Watch: Double your money


By last Friday’s close, a share of Google was worth $172.43 – slightly more than double its initial offering price of $85. The catalyst for Google’s eye-popping performance was its quarterly earnings report, the company’s first results since going public. The earnings were dazzling. All of a sudden, the tune from Wall Street to Silicon Valley was the dot-com version of “Happy Days Are Here Again.” On Friday, the stock jumped a little past $180. One brave analyst slapped on a price target of $200.

Google released its third-quarter and nine-month results on Thursday, after the closing bell. The figures showed continuing growth in profitability and revenues. For the nine months ending September 30, Google reported net income of $195 million on revenues of $2.16 billion. A year earlier, for the nine months ending September 30, 2003, Google reported net income of $78.4 million on revenues of $953.8 million.

Since 1999, Google’s top line has grown from $220 million to $1.47 billion for 2003. Since 1999, Google’s bottom line has gone from a loss of $6.1 million to net income of $195 million in 2003.

In Friday’s trading, Google’s common stock sold for as high as $180.17 before closing at $172.43 - up 102.9 percent from its initial offering price.

Here are the updated estimates for Google’s earnings per share:

December/2004E: $2.52 (new) $2.27 (old – October 1, 2004)

December/2005E: $3.36 (new) $2.81 (old – October 1, 2004)

December/2006E: $4.06 (new) $3.40 (old – October 1, 2004)

(Source: Thomson One Analytics)

But Google isn’t the only IPO so far this year to double investors’ money with a gain from its initial offering price of 100 percent or more. At least five other IPOs have the same claim to fame, all with better aftermarket performances.

Here are the members of the “double your money” club:

- Shanda Interactive Entertainment, an operator of online games based in Shanghai, China, still tops the 2004 IPO hit parade. Shanda priced 13.9 million American Depositary Shares (ADS) at $11 each on May 11. The stock closed on Friday at $29.80 per ADS - up 170.9 percent from its initial offering price.

- JED Oil, a Canadian oil and natural gas company, priced 1.7 million shares at $11 each on April 5. The stock closed on Friday at $13.47 per share - up 144.9 percent from its initial offering price.

up

- RightNow Technologies, Bozeman, Montana, is a provider of on-demand software solutions to support multiple communications channels, including web, interactive voice, email, chat, telephone, and pro-active outbound email communications. The company’s software creates a comprehensive record of customer interactions. RightNow Technologies priced 6.3 million shares at $7 each on August 4. The stock closed on Friday at $16.63 per share - up 137.6 percent from its initial offering price.

up

- Crosstex Energy is an energy company in Dallas engaged in the gathering, transmission, treating, processing, and marketing of natural gas. Crosstex Energy priced 2.3 million shares at $19.50 each on January 12. The stock closed on Friday at $41.21 per share - up 111.3 percent from its initial offering price.

- 51job, a human resources company in Shanghai offering recruitment services both in print and online in China, priced 5.3 million ADS at $14 each on September 28. The stock closed on Friday at $28.64 per ADS - up 104.6 percent from its initial offering price.

up

The week in review

Who knows whether any of the eight IPOs priced last week will some day wind up in the “double your money” club.

So far, here’s what we do know. Eight companies went public during the week of October 18. Seven of those IPOs started trading.

The straggler was SmartPros, a provider of learning solutions for the accounting/finance and engineering professions based in Hawthorne, New York. SmartPros priced 600,000 units at $12.75 each. The units are to be listed on the American Stock Exchange. SmartPros has not started trading yet, according to available records.

The week’s hero:

Just in time for Halloween, specialty retailer Celebrate Express went public. Its IPO finished on Friday with a gain of 8.97 percent from its initial offering price of $15.50, making it the week’s best performer.

Celebrate Express, of Kirkland, Washington, sells costumes and party favors. The retailer’s IPO was priced above its range, which was $13 to $15 per share. It trades on the Nasdaq Composite Index under the symbol BDAY. So happy birthday, baby.

The week’s goat:

The week’s worst performer was Sunstone Hotel Investors, a real estate investment trust (REIT). Its IPO closed on Friday with a loss of 1.41 percent from its initial offering price of $17.

Sunstone Hotel Investors, of San Clemente, California, is an REIT that owns and operates 54 hotels in 17 states. The Sunstone REIT is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol SHO. Unfortunately, its performance in its first week as a publicly traded company was more of a “no go” than a big show. The REIT was priced below its range of $18 to $20.

Almost there

Three other IPOs closed Friday only pennies away from staking a claim to the “double your money” club. They were:

- Machex, Seattle, an online provider of transaction-based services to merchants, priced its IPO at $6.50 per share. The stock closed on Friday at $12.91 per share - up 98.6 percent from its initial offering price.

up

- JAMDAT Holdings, Los Angeles, a publisher of wireless entertainment applications, including games, ring tones, images, and other entertainment content for cell phones, priced its IPO at $16 per share. The stock closed on Friday at $31.57 per share – up 97.3 percent from its initial offering price.

up

- Eyetech Pharmaceuticals, New York City, a biopharmaceutical company specializing in the development of therapeutics to treat diseases of the eye, priced its IPO at $16 per share. The stock closed on Friday at $31.57 per share - up 97.3 percent from its initial offering price.

Blondes and a bull’s eye

Once upon a time (OK, it was circa 1955) a smart young ad woman named Shirley Polykoff came up with an unforgettable question. (And, of course, she already knew the answer.) In the legendary ads for Lady Clairol hair color, she asked:

“Is it true blondes have more fun?”

For savvy IPO investors, this question is worth asking:

“Is it true bulls have more fun?”

Well, so far this year about 180 IPOs have been priced. In 2003, only 84 companies went public.

Even if all of your IPO investments have not hit the bull’s eye or qualified for the “double your money” club, you know the answer.

Bulls are party animals. Bears are spoilers.